Expected Move

Are you wondering what the expected move of a stock price will be for an options expiration cycle? Perhaps you’re trying to find out what the expected move will be for an earnings play. No matter your motive, you can find the expected move on the desktop, web browser, and mobile platforms.

Expected Move Definition

The expected move is the estimated dollar move of the underlying’s price for a given option's expiration date with a 68% certainty. The value is based on the expiration's pricing and level of implied volatility. 

Expected Move Calculation

Expected Move = (ATM straddle price x 0.6) + (1st OTM strangle price x 0.3) + (2nd OTM strangle price x 0.1)

For example, if stock XYZ is trading at 121 and the ATM straddle is 4.40, the 120/122 strangle is 3.46, & the 119/123 strangle is 2.66, then the expected move would be calculated as follows:

4.40 x .60 = 2.64

3.46 x .30 = 1.04

2.66 x .10 = 0.27

Expected move = 2.64 + 1.04 + 0.27 = ±3.95

Expected Move on the Desktop Platform

To see if your desktop platform is displaying the expected move, then please head to the platform's settings menu. You can reach the Settings menu by clicking the settings gear icon, located throughout the platform. The screenshot below depicts what you will see.

Image of trade tab settings

Where is the expected move displayed?

A light orange bar located to the right of the strike prices indicates the expected move. If the expected move is displayed but is not appearing, then try increasing the number of displayed strikes.

Image of expected move on the options chain

Expected Move on the Web Browser Platform

To view the expected move on the web platform, first navigate to the trade tab in table mode. Once you are in the trade window make sure you have the correct price range overlay settings. To do this, click the settings gear button in the right-hand corner of the trade window. The trade table settings will appear in the center of the platform. Make sure you select the price range setting ‘expectedMoveEarnings’ to view the expected move on your options table. 

Detailed view

Video of expected move in trade settings

Where is the expected move displayed?

Once the “Show range of expected move” is enabled from the settings menu, the expected move is represented by the light orange shaded bar to the right of the strike prices, as illustrated below.

Image of orange expected move range on web platform

Expected move on the Mobile Platform

Much like the desktop platform, the mobile app also displays the expected move after expanding an expiration in the table mode. The expected move is also displayed in the top right corner of the expiration bar as a ± number. The expected move is shaded orange and located immediately to the right of the strike prices.

Expected move displayed on Trade table in mobile app

To see if your mobile platform is displaying the expected move tap the gear icon in the top right corner of the table. Once the settings menu opens you can confirm or change the setting that is enabled for Price Range Overlay.

Animated steps for enabling expected move on mobile app